Using Scenario Analysis to Assess Water Security in an Uncertain Future

The USAID Sustainable Water Partnership (SWP) worked with local stakeholders to improve water security in the Mara River Basin in Kenya and Tanzania and the Stung Chinit River Basin in Cambodia. In both locations, the uncertain future impacts of climate change and planned infrastructure, such as dams, irrigation systems, and municipal water supply, have made it difficult to forecast water availability. Uncertainty of future water availability has major consequences when planning for infrastructure that is designed for a long-term useful life.

This case study documents SWP’s experience applying the Robust Decision Support process with key stakeholders in each location to model and assess the impacts of future climate change and development scenarios on water availability.